Interactive Music Generation with Positional Constraints using Anticipation-RNNs

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNS) are now widely used on sequence generation tasks due to their ability to learn long-range dependencies and to generate sequences of arbitrary length. However, their left-to-right generation procedure only allows a limited control from a potential user which makes them unsuitable for interactive and creative usages such as interactive music generation. This paper introduces a novel architecture called Anticipation-RNN which possesses the assets of the RNN-based generative models while allowing to enforce user-defined positional constraints. We demonstrate its efficiency on the task of generating melodies satisfying positional constraints in the style of the soprano parts of the J.S. Bach chorale harmonizations. Sampling using the Anticipation-RNN is of the same order of complexity than sampling from the traditional RNN model. This fast and interactive generation of musical sequences opens ways to devise real-time systems that could be used for creative purposes.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figure

Nonparametric Modeling and Model-Based Control of the Insulin-Glucose System

Non

Predictive Modeling of Covid-19 Data in the US: Adaptive Phase-Space Approach

There are currently intensified efforts by the scientific community world-wide to analyze the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic in order to predict key epidemiological effects and assist the proper planning for its clinical management, as well as guide sociopolitical decision-making regarding proper mitigation measures. Most efforts follow variants of the established SIR methodological framework that divides a population into “Susceptible”, “Infectious” and “Recovered/Removed” fractions and defines their dynamic inter-relationships with first-order differential equations. Goal: This paper proposes a novel approach based on data-guided detection and concatenation of infection waves - each of them described by a Riccati equation with adaptively estimated parameters. Methods: This approach was applied to Covid-19 daily time-series data of US confirmed cases, resulting in the decomposition of the epidemic time-course into five “Riccati modules” representing major infection waves to date (June 18th). Results: Four waves have passed the time-point of peak infection rate, with the fifth expected to peak on July 20th. The obtained parameter estimates indicate gradual reduction of infectivity rate, although the latest wave is expected to be the largest. Conclusions: This analysis suggests that, if no new waves of infection emerge, the Covid-19 epidemic will be controlled in the US (<; 5000 new daily cases) by September 26th, and the maximum of confirmed cases will reach 4,160,000. Importantly, this approach can be used to detect (via rigorous statistical methods) the emergence of possible new waves of infections in the future. Analysis of data from individual states or countries may quantify the distinct effects of different mitigation measures

Nonlinear Modeling of the Dynamic Effects of Infused Insulin on Glucose: Comparison of Compartmental With Volterra Models

This paper presents the results of a computational study that compares simulated compartmental (differential equation) and Volterra models of the dynamic effects of insulin on blood glucose concentration in humans. In the first approach, we employ the widely accepted ldquominimal modelrdquo and an augmented form of it, which incorporates the effect of insulin secretion by the pancreas, in order to represent the actual closed-loop operating conditions of the system, and in the second modeling approach, we employ the general class of Volterra-type models that are estimated from input-output data. We demonstrate both the equivalence between the two approaches analytically and the feasibility of obtaining accurate Volterra models from insulin-glucose data generated from the compartmental models. The results corroborate the proposition that it may be preferable to obtain data-driven (i.e., inductive) models in a more general and realistic operating context, without resorting to the restrictive prior assumptions and simplifications regarding model structure and/or experimental protocols (e.g., glucose tolerance tests) that are necessary for the compartmental models proposed previously. These prior assumptions may lead to results that are improperly constrained or biased by preconceived (and possibly erroneous) notions-a risk that is avoided when we let the data guide the inductive selection of the appropriate model within the general class of Volterra-type models, as our simulation results suggest.National Institutes of Health (U.S.)Myronis Foundation (Graduate Research Scholarship)National Institute for Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (U.S.) (Grant P41-EB001978)European Social FundNational Resources—Operational Program Competitiveness—General Secretariat for Research and Development (Program ENTER